The European Commission has launched a targeted consultation on the review of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), explicitly raising for the first time whether DLT-based prediction markets should be brought inside the European Union’s regulatory framework and, if so, under which regime. The consultation opened on May 20, 2026, and its deadline, initially set for August 31, has been extended to September 30, 2026.
The consultation forms part of the Commission’s preparation of a mandated report to the European Parliament and the Council, due by June 30, 2027, under Articles 140 and 142 of MiCA. The document highlights prediction markets alongside DeFi, staking, lending, NFTs, perpetual futures, and tokenized deposits as fast-growing activities that currently fall outside MiCA’s scope.
Regulatory Options: MiCA or MiFID II
The core policy question posed in the consultation is whether DLT-based prediction markets and crypto perpetuals should be regulated under MiCA or under MiFID II, the EU’s more stringent framework for traditional financial instruments. This choice will shape how such products are classified, supervised, and offered across the bloc.
Regulatory pressure on prediction markets has been intensifying. On July 3, 2026, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) issued a public statement clarifying that event contracts whose underlyings fall within Annex I of MiFID II qualify as financial instruments. As a result, they are captured by existing national prohibitions on the marketing, distribution, or sale of binary options to retail clients.
Enforcement Actions and Market Growth
The consultation follows a period of notable enforcement and market expansion. Combined monthly volume on the prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket reached $44.8 billion in June 2026. At the same time, national authorities have escalated actions against these platforms.
In March 2026, Portugal ordered internet service providers to block access to Kalshi and Polymarket. Spain opened sanction proceedings against both platforms in May 2026 for operating without gambling licenses. In mid-June 2026, gambling regulators from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland issued a joint declaration pledging coordinated enforcement against unlicensed prediction-market platforms.
From Enforcement to Rulemaking
The MiCA review consultation marks the first formal acknowledgment from Brussels that the regulatory gap around DLT-based prediction markets should be addressed through deliberate rulemaking rather than solely through national enforcement actions. With the consultation now closing on September 30, 2026, the current extension represents the final opportunity for industry participants to provide input before the Commission drafts its report and potential legislative proposals.
